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Cases/Space/Case 013

Is the Earth flat?

Where the flat-Earth idea came from, how many people hold it, and how its strongest arguments do against records that NASA did not produce.

The question Why do people believe the Earth is flat, how big is the movement, and how do its strongest arguments hold up against the evidence?

14 main-timeline steps3 branches32 sources, 10 of them tier 1
Go down a branch
The short version

What the records say

The documented story holds up: 10 of 14 timeline steps are Confirmed by the records (score 93).

3 theories checked: 3 disproven. A theory is rated by its key claim.

The theories, and how they hold up
Most recent finding
14–17 Dec 2024

Flat-Earth YouTubers go to Antarctica and watch the Sun stay up at midnight

confirmed

Credible: two independent tier-2 reports. See the step

Down the rabbit hole

The ground line is the documented timeline. Each tunnel is a theory that branches off it; every chamber is a step, coloured by how well the records support it. The deepest chamber is the theory’s key claim. Tap one to open it.

14 documented steps along the ground; 3 theories tunnel down from them. A flat disc ringed by ice: Disproven. NASA and governments are hiding it: Disproven. Water always finds its level: Disproven.c. 350 BCSep 1519 – 6 Sep 15221838 (as reported); published 1849–1865Dec 197214–17 Dec 2024A flat disc ringed by iceDisprovenWater always finds its levelDisprovenNASA and governments are hiding itDisproven
confirmedlikelydisputedunverifieddisproven

Main timeline

Oldest first
confirmedlikelydisputedunverifieddisproven
  1. c. 350 BC
    confirmed

    Aristotle argues the Earth is a sphere, from what anyone can see

    In On the Heavens he points to lunar eclipses, where “the outline is always curved”, and to the stars changing as a traveller goes north or south: some stars seen in Egypt are not seen further north.

    T1Aristotle, On the Heavens, c. 350 BCBook II, Part 14
  2. 3rd century BC
    confirmed

    Cleomedes records how Eratosthenes measured the Earth’s size

    Using the Sun’s angle at noon on the summer solstice at Syene and at Alexandria, said to be 5,000 stades apart, Eratosthenes got a circumference of 250,000 stades. His own book is lost; the account survives through Cleomedes. Britannica notes the length of his stade is uncertain, so his accuracy is too.

    T1Cleomedes, The Heavens I.7I.7T2Britannica, “Eratosthenes”
  3. 20 Sep 1519 – 6 Sep 1522
    confirmed

    Magellan’s expedition sails west and one ship comes home from the east

    The fleet left Sanlúcar on 20 September 1519; the Victoria re-entered the bay of Sanlúcar on 6 September 1522 with 18 men. At the Cape Verde Islands the pilot Francisco Albo found the ship’s calendar a day behind: “I believe that we had made a mistake of a day.”

    T1Pigafetta and Albo, 1519–1522Pigafetta’s account; Albo’s log-book; editor’s chronology
  4. 1838 (as reported); published 1849–1865
    confirmed

    Samuel Rowbotham says the Old Bedford canal shows no curve over six miles

    His 1865 book says an observer with his eye “not exceeding eight inches” above the water watched a boat and flag stay visible for six miles. He lived beside that canal at the Manea Fen colony from 1838, lectured on it from 1849, and published the book in 1865.

    T3Rowbotham, Earth Not a Globe!, 1865Old Bedford canal experimentT3Schadewald, The Plane Truthch. 1
  5. Mar 1870 – 17 Jan 1876
    confirmed

    Alfred Russel Wallace wins a £500 wager on the same canal

    John Hampden challenged anyone to show a convex canal or lake. The two referees disagreed; the umpire, John Henry Walsh, ruled Wallace had shown curvature “to the extent of five feet more or less” over six miles. In 1876 a court let Hampden recover his stake on wagering law, without deciding the Earth’s shape.

    T1Hampden v. Walsh, 18761 Q.B.D. 189–191T3Wallace, My Life, vol. 2, 1905pp. 381–388involved party: Alfred Russel Wallace, winner of the 1870 wager
  6. 24 Oct 1946
    likely

    A camera on a captured V-2 rocket photographs the Earth from 65 miles up

    The US Army launched it from White Sands, years before the space age began. The magazine adds that a 1935 balloon, Explorer II, had already climbed 13.7 miles, “high enough to discern the curvature of the Earth.”

    T2Air & Space, 24 Oct 2006
  7. 1956 – 2001
    likely

    Samuel Shenton founds the International Flat Earth Society; Charles Johnson takes it over in 1972

    Shenton, of Dover, founded it in the 1950s (20 December 1956, by Schadewald’s account). Johnson ran it from California from 1972; it reportedly reached about 3,500 members, and had dwindled to about 100 by his death in 2001.

    T2Smithsonian, 29 Jan 2016T2The Independent, 30 Mar 2001T3Schadewald, The Plane Truthch. 9
    Sources disagreeSmithsonian (2016) says the society “dwindled again to just 100 members” by 2001; the 2001 Independent obituary gives only the 3,500 peak. Live Science (2017) says the society then “claims 555 members”.
  8. 7 Dec 1972
    likely

    Apollo 17’s crew photograph the whole Earth on the way to the Moon

    NASA’s archive lists frame AS17-148-22727, a hand-held Hasselblad picture showing Africa and Antarctica. The record is NASA’s own, and NASA’s honesty is what the “cover-up” branch questions, so it stays at Likely here.

    T1NASA NSSDCA, AS17-148-22727AS17-148-22727involved party: NASA
  9. c. 2015
    confirmed

    Eric Dubay publishes “200 Proofs Earth is Not a Spinning Ball”

    A numbered list of arguments: water finds its level, the horizon rises to eye level, NASA images are fakes, Antarctica is closed to independent explorers. Its text mentions events of 2015; the oldest surviving YouTube copy we found was uploaded on 15 September 2016.

    T3Dubay, 200 Proofs Earth is Not a Spinning Ballproofs 1–7, 57, 171T3YouTube counters, 12 Oct 2026-Ax_YpQsy88
  10. 9–10 Nov 2017
    confirmed

    The first Flat Earth International Conference meets in Raleigh, North Carolina

    Its organiser told Live Science about 500 people attended. Talks included “NASA and Other Space Lies” and “Testing the Globe”; speakers included Mark Sargent and Jeran Campanella.

    T2Live Science, 17 Nov 2017T2ABC News, Nov 2017
  11. 2 Apr 2018
    confirmed

    YouGov reports that 2% of Americans say they have always believed the Earth is flat

    In its February 2018 poll, 84% said they had always believed it was round and at least 5% said they used to but now have doubts. Among 18 to 24 year olds, 4% said flat.

    T2YouGov, 2 Apr 2018T2Scientific American, 24 Oct 2018
    Sources disagreeScientific American’s authors asked YouGov for the data and got a spreadsheet of 10,374 respondents, 1.28% of them always-flat, against the report’s 8,215 and 2%. YouGov did not resolve the difference.
  12. Feb 2019
    likely

    Netflix’s “Behind the Curve” shows flat-Earthers testing their own ideas

    Bob Knodel’s $20,000 laser gyroscope picked up “a 15 degree per hour drift,” which he said his team was not willing to accept. In the closing test, Jeran Campanella’s light only showed through the far hole once raised “way above your head.”

    T2Newsweek, 25 Feb 2019
  13. Feb 2019
    confirmed

    A researcher finds that 29 of 30 conference-goers she interviewed came to the idea through YouTube

    Asheley Landrum of Texas Tech told the AAAS meeting that the only exception had been told about it by relatives who saw it on YouTube. She said the algorithms “make it easy to end up going down the rabbit hole”.

    T2The Guardian, 17 Feb 2019T2HuffPost, 18 Feb 2019
    Sources disagreeThe Guardian places the interviews at the 2017 Raleigh and 2018 Denver conferences; HuffPost says the 2017 conference.
  14. 14–17 Dec 2024
    confirmed

    Flat-Earth YouTubers go to Antarctica and watch the Sun stay up at midnight

    Pastor Will Duffy took four flat-Earthers and four globe believers to Union Glacier camp. Jeran Campanella afterwards said “the flat Earth doesn’t work for me”; others online argued the footage was faked.

    T2The Denver Post, 17 Jan 2025T2Gizmodo, 19 Dec 2024

Branches

Go down one

A branch is only as strong as its weakest step so far. The count is how many sources back each step.

Branches off main-timeline step 3 · 20 Sep 1519 – 6 Sep 1522

A flat disc ringed by ice

Is the Earth a flat disc with the North Pole at its centre and a wall of ice around the edge?

Where it came from · 1849–1865

Samuel Rowbotham’s lectures (from January 1849) and his 1865 book Earth Not a Globe!, which puts “ONE CENTRE—THE NORTH” and describes the south as “the vast icy boundary of the world”. Charles Johnson’s Flat Earth Society taught the same layout in the 1970s–90s.

T3Rowbotham, Earth Not a Globe!, 1865Figs. 10–11 and textT3Schadewald, The Plane Truthch. 1T2The Independent, 30 Mar 2001
Traction (measured, with the date)
Their strongest arguments, and what the evidence says

  1. Sailing round the world proves nothing: you can circle a flat plane too

    Rowbotham argued that a ship keeping due west simply “describes a circle upon a plane” around the northern centre and comes home from the east.

    T3Rowbotham, Earth Not a Globe!, 1865section on circumnavigation
    The premise: confirmed

    Fair, as far as it goes. The first circumnavigation was a westward loop, and the day the crew lost shows they went round once, not which shape they went round. Rowbotham himself says the test is the far south, where his plane makes distances far larger: see the next two arguments.

    T1Pigafetta and Albo, 1519–1522Albo’s log-book

  2. Southern flights detour through the north, which only makes sense on a flat map

    Dubay wrote that Santiago–Sydney flights go into the Northern hemisphere, stopping at LAX and other North American airports.

    T3Dubay, 200 Proofs Earth is Not a Spinning Ballproofs 43–44
    The premise: disproven

    Qantas launched a non-stop Sydney–Santiago service, QF27, with a flying time of 13 hours 10 minutes, three times a week, from 2012. Its partner LAN also flew the route daily via Auckland.

    T1Qantas media release, 2012

  3. Nobody has shown the 24-hour Antarctic Sun

    Dubay wrote that “the establishment” has no uncut video of the Antarctic midnight sun and does not let independent explorers verify it.

    T3Dubay, 200 Proofs Earth is Not a Spinning Ballproof 57
    The premise: disproven

    In December 2024 four flat-Earth creators, with globe believers, filmed and livestreamed the Sun up at midnight from Union Glacier. Jeran Campanella said his flat map would not be legitimate if a 24-hour Sun existed.

    T2The Denver Post, 17 Jan 2025T2Gizmodo, 19 Dec 2024
Step by step
  1. confirmed

    Rowbotham’s 1865 book draws the Earth as a plane with the north at the centre and an icy southern rim

    He wrote that “the south is the vast icy boundary of the world”, a circumference rather than a pole.

    T3Rowbotham, Earth Not a Globe!, 1865Figs. 10–11
    StartStrength so far:confirmed· 1 source on this step
  2. likely

    Charles Johnson’s Flat Earth Society taught a disc with Antarctica as its circumference

    His obituary says he held the Earth to be “a flat disc floating on primordial waters”, with the North Pole at its centre and Antarctica around the edge.

    T2The Independent, 30 Mar 2001
    ▼ WeakerStrength so far:likely· 1 source on this step
  3. confirmed

    In December 2024 flat-Earth creators saw the Sun stay up at midnight in Antarctica

    Campanella said the flat map he used, the azimuthal equidistant map, would not be legitimate if a 24-hour Sun existed. Once he saw it, he said, “the flat Earth doesn’t work for me”.

    T2The Denver Post, 17 Jan 2025T2Gizmodo, 19 Dec 2024
    = HoldsStrength so far:likely· 2 sources on this step
  4. disproven

    Key claim: the Earth is a flat disc with an ice wall round the edge

    Contradicted by the midnight sun seen in Antarctica by believers themselves, and by a scheduled non-stop flight across the southern Pacific that the “northern detour” argument said did not exist.

    T2The Denver Post, 17 Jan 2025T2Gizmodo, 19 Dec 2024T1Qantas media release, 2012
    ▼ WeakerStrength so far:disproven· 3 sources on this step
This branch

Bullshit meter

25%1 of 4 steps are Unverified or Disproven · one cell per step
  • Key claim: the Earth is a flat disc with an ice wall round the edge. Disproven.
  • Key claim contradicted by tier 1? Yes. Independent tier-2 reports record believers themselves seeing the 24-hour Antarctic Sun, which the disc cannot produce, and a tier-1 airline record contradicts the “southern detour” argument.
This branch

Fluff meter: possibly planted

1 / 5signals present · 1 not measured
  • Can’t be traced to an original record. Absent: traced to Rowbotham’s 1865 book.
  • First appeared from new or anonymous accounts. Absent: first set out by a named author in 1849–1865.
  • Coordinated identical wording. Not measured.
  • Cited source doesn’t exist. Absent: the books cited exist and were read.
  • Later contradicted. Present: the 2024 Antarctic midnight sun, observed by believers.

● present · ○ absent · – not measured. Lists signals only. It never accuses anyone.

This branch

Personal interest meter

1documented interest
  • Kryptoz Media, which hosted the 2017 conference, produces DVDs and other media arguing that “scientism” is an agenda to keep people from God. T2Live Science, 17 Nov 2017

“Has a documented interest” only, each one sourced. Never an implication of guilt.

Case · Is the Earth flat?

Correlation meter

3shared items tie parts of this case together
  • Jeran Campanella, spoke at the 2017 conference (main timeline step 10), ran the light test in “Behind the Curve” (step 12) and went to Antarctica in 2024 (step 14). T2The Denver Post, 17 Jan 2025
  • “200 Proofs Earth is Not a Spinning Ball”, is Dubay’s list (main step 9) and was named by the YouTube researcher as one of the most popular flat-Earth videos (step 13). T2The Guardian, 17 Feb 2019
  • Moon landings, Charles Johnson called the Moon landing a hoax; see the separate Moon landing case file. T2Smithsonian, 29 Jan 2016

Links to other cases appear once those cases exist.

Community

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This case was assembled by the site from public records. Contributions are not open yet. Nothing here is invented, so the counts are zero.

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This is the first published version of the case.

Every source on this page

Sources

  • T1Aristotle, On the Heavens (De Caelo), Book II, Part 14, translated by J. L. Stocks (Internet Classics Archive, MIT; the page dates the work “350 B.C.E.”). classics.mit.edu
  • T1Cleomedes, The Heavens (Caelestia) I.7, on Eratosthenes’ measurement, in T. L. Heath’s translation (Greek Astronomy, 1932) as reprinted in Cohen and Drabkin, A Source Book in Greek Science (1948), pp. 149–153; read as quoted on Roger Pearse’s weblog. www.roger-pearse.com
  • T2“Eratosthenes”, Encyclopaedia Britannica (online, modified 5 Sep 2026). www.britannica.com
  • T1The First Voyage Round the World by Magellan, translated from the accounts of Pigafetta and other contemporary writers (incl. the log-book of the pilot Francisco Albo), ed. Lord Stanley of Alderley, Hakluyt Society, 1874. archive.org
  • T3“Parallax” (Samuel Birley Rowbotham), Zetetic Astronomy: Earth Not a Globe! (London: Simpkin, Marshall and Co., 1865), Project Gutenberg eBook #69892. www.gutenberg.org
  • T3Robert J. Schadewald, The Plane Truth (book manuscript on the history of flat-Earth movements), chapters 1, 2, 3 and 9, as published online by Michael Behrend. www.cantab.net
  • T1Hampden v. Walsh, Queen’s Bench Division, judgment of 17 Jan 1876 (Cockburn C.J., Mellor and Quain JJ.), 1 Q.B.D. 189, as reprinted in a law-report volume and posted by Charles H. Smith’s Alfred Russel Wallace site (Western Kentucky University). people.wku.edu
  • T3involved party: Alfred Russel Wallace, winner of the 1870 wager Alfred Russel Wallace, My Life: A Record of Events and Opinions, vol. 2 (London: Chapman and Hall, 1905), chapter “Hampden and the Flat Earth”, pp. 381–388. archive.org
  • T2Tony Reichhardt, “The First Photo From Space”, Air & Space Magazine (Smithsonian), 24 Oct 2006. www.smithsonianmag.com
  • T2Tim Bullamore, “Obituary: Charles Johnson”, The Independent, 30 Mar 2001 (read as reproduced in the Flat Earth Society’s online library). www.independent.co.uk · copy read: library.tfes.org
  • T2Danny Lewis, “The Curious History of the International Flat Earth Society”, Smithsonian Magazine (Smart News), 29 Jan 2016. www.smithsonianmag.com
  • T1involved party: NASA “Earth - Apollo 17: Full Earth showing Africa and Antarctica”, AS17-148-22727, NASA Space Science Data Coordinated Archive photo gallery. nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov
  • T1involved party: NASA “Blue marble”, NASA Science image resource (caption adapted from NASA’s Visible Earth catalogue; visualisation date 2 Aug 2002), and the Visible Earth record VE-IMG-2429 as archived on the Internet Archive. science.nasa.gov · copy read: archive.org
  • T1Japan Meteorological Agency, “Himawari-8 In-Orbit Test Summary” (news release on Himawari-8 sample imagery), 1 May 2015. www.jma.go.jp
  • T3Eric Dubay, 200 Proofs Earth is Not a Spinning Ball (self-published e-book, text refers to events of 2015), as uploaded to the Internet Archive on 23 Nov 2019. archive.org
  • T3YouTube video and channel pages as read on 12 Oct 2026: “Eric Dubay: 200 Proofs Earth is Not a Spinning Ball” (-Ax_YpQsy88, uploaded by “Planet Plane” 15 Sep 2016), “200 Proofs Earth is Not a Spinning Ball (HD Remastered)” (qEaHjPF47_E, Eric Dubay, 26 Jul 2019), “(2024 Remastered Edition)” (N9CQPMOzeRs, Eric Dubay, 13 Nov 2023), channels @FlatEarthEric, @jeranism, @The-Final-Experiment, and “It’s Midnight in Antarctica!” (d_LNSbStu9c, 14 Dec 2024). www.youtube.com
  • T4Reddit community headers as read on 12 Oct 2026 (Reddit now shows weekly visitors and weekly contributions, not subscriber totals): r/globeskepticism, r/FlatEarthIsReal, r/flatearth_polite, r/flatearth. www.reddit.com
  • T4The Flat Earth Society forum board index (forum.tfes.org), statistics line as read on 12 Oct 2026. forum.tfes.org
  • T2Stephanie Pappas, “What in the World? Flat-Earthers Gather at First Conference”, Live Science, 17 Nov 2017. www.livescience.com
  • T2“Inside Flat Earth International Conference, where everyone believes Earth isn’t round”, ABC News, Nov 2017. abcnews.com
  • T2Hoang Nguyen, “Most flat earthers consider themselves very religious”, YouGov, 2 Apr 2018. yougov.com
  • T2Glenn Branch and Craig A. Foster, “Yes, Flat-Earthers Really Do Exist”, Scientific American (Observations blog), 24 Oct 2018. www.scientificamerican.com
  • T2Andrew Whalen, “‘Behind the Curve’ Ending: Flat Earthers Disprove Themselves With Own Experiments in Netflix Documentary”, Newsweek, 25 Feb 2019. www.newsweek.com
  • T2Ian Sample, “Study blames YouTube for rise in number of Flat Earthers”, The Guardian, 17 Feb 2019. www.theguardian.com
  • T2David Barden, “YouTube Is Behind The Rise In Flat Earth Believers, Researcher Says”, HuffPost, 18 Feb 2019. www.huffpost.com
  • T2Gabriela Vinhal, “Datafolha: ao menos 11 mi de brasileiros acreditam que a Terra é plana”, Metrópoles, 14 Jul 2019 (reporting a Datafolha poll). www.metropoles.com
  • T2Lawrence C. Hamilton, “Conspiracy vs. Science: A Survey of U.S. Public Beliefs”, Carsey School of Public Policy, University of New Hampshire, 25 Apr 2022. carsey.unh.edu
  • T1Qantas, “Qantas launches Santiago flights”, media release (archived page dated Sun 25 Mar 2012). www.qantasnewsroom.com.au · copy read: web.archive.org
  • T1International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators, “IAATO Overview of Antarctic Vessel Tourism: The 2023-24 Season, and Preliminary Estimates for 2024-25”, Information Paper IP 102 rev.1 to the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting, submitted 10 May 2024. iaato.org
  • T1The Antarctic Treaty, text as published by the Secretariat of the Antarctic Treaty (Key documents, vol. 1). documents.ats.aq
  • T2Lucas Ropek, “Flat Earther Expedition to Antartica Bolsters Case That Our Planet Is Round”, Gizmodo, 19 Dec 2024. gizmodo.com
  • T2Noelle Phillips, “A Colorado pastor thought he could make flat-Earthers see the light in Antarctica. It didn’t work”, The Denver Post, 17 Jan 2025 (updated 19 Jan 2025). www.denverpost.com · copy read: web.archive.org

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