How ratings work
Every step in every case carries a rating, and every rating shows the records behind it. These are the rules, version 1. Any page can be checked against them.
1. Evidence tiers
Every source gets a tier. Only tiers 1 and 2 can make a step Confirmed or Likely.
| Tier | What it is | Examples |
|---|---|---|
| T1 · Primary record | The record itself. | Court filings and opinions, government reports and laws, official investigations, original footage or data, peer-reviewed original research. |
| T2 · Strong reporting | Reputable reporting with named sources. | Major news organisations, academic reviews, museum and university publications. |
| T3 · Secondary | Someone’s account of the record. | Books, commentary, documentaries, interviews. A claimant’s own book is a T3 record of what they claim. |
| T4 · Unverified | No way to check it. | Anonymous or social posts. |
2. Certainty of a step
| Rating | Means |
|---|---|
| Confirmed | At least one tier-1 record, or two independent tier-2 sources, state the fact, and nothing credible contradicts it. |
| Likely | Supported but short of Confirmed: one tier-2 source, or a tier-1 record that supports it only indirectly, with nothing credible against it. |
| Disputed | Credible evidence (tier 1–2) on both sides. |
| Unverified | No tier 1–2 evidence for the fact itself. |
| Disproven | Contradicted by independent tier 1–2 evidence. |
Interested parties. A record made by someone with a documented stake in the answer, such as an agency denying its own act, counts as evidence for its side. On its own it can never make a claim Disproven. That needs an independent record.
No source is taken on trust, official ones included. A party whose own conduct is in question (an agency, a company, a league, a person) cannot confirm a claim in its favour with its own records, just as it cannot disprove a claim against it. Such sources are tagged “involved party” on every page. A step that rests only on them is at most Likely. The exception is an admission against interest: when a party records something damaging to itself, that counts strongly.
Theories get a real hearing. Every theory shows where it came from, how much traction it has (measured numbers, with the date), and its strongest arguments in its proponents’ own terms. Each argument’s factual premise is rated by the same rules as the official story. When a proponent’s point is true, the page says so.
Allegations. A court record that an allegation was made proves the allegation exists, not that it is true. The step says “alleged”, or the fact is rated on its own evidence.
What a document says. A step that only reports that a book, report or review made a statement (“the 2019 review concludes…”) is Confirmed by that document itself, because it is the record of its own words. Whether the statement is true is rated separately.
The site checks this mechanically: a case cannot be published if any step claims more than its sources carry.
3. Case score and closure
The case score is the average of the main timeline’s steps: Confirmed 100, Likely 75, Disputed 40, Unverified 15, Disproven 0. The page works it out from the steps; nobody types it in. Branches never move the case score.
A case can be closed as proven at 90 or more with no disputed or disproven step on the main timeline, or as disproven when its central claim is disproven. Either way two reviewers must agree. There are no reviewers yet, so every case is still open, and the page says so.
4. Branches and meters
Branches are the claims people make about a case: the rabbit holes. A branch is only as strong as its weakest step so far.
- Bullshit meter: the share of a branch’s steps that are Unverified or Disproven, and whether its key claim is contradicted by a primary record. It lists the steps dragging it down.
- Fluff meter (possibly planted): five signals, each marked present, absent or not measured: can’t be traced to an original record; first appeared from new or anonymous accounts; coordinated identical wording; the cited source doesn’t exist; later contradicted. It lists signals only and never accuses anyone.
- Correlation meter: people, documents and events shared between branches and cases.
- Personal interest meter: documented interests only (funding, employment, ownership), each with a tier 1–2 source. It means “has a documented interest”, never guilt.
5. Naming people
People are named only from tier 1–2 sources, and only for factual relationships. Private individuals stay out unless they are in the public record and central to the case.