Did the Patriots deflate the footballs, or was it the cold?
The league’s investigators found it more probable than not that two staff let air out and that Brady was at least generally aware. Independent scientists dispute the physics, and the courts ruled only on the league’s power to punish, not on the facts.
- ✓ Confirmed6 May 2015The Wells Report says it is “more probable than not” that two staff let air out, and that Brady was “at least generally aware”
- DisputedTheoryThe halftime readings are explained by temperature and wetness, with no tampering
- DisputedTheoryBrady knew about and approved the deflation
The Patriots’ footballs measured under the limit at halftime of the January 2015 AFC Championship Game. The league’s own report, the court rulings, the physics fight and the theories, rated on the records.
The question Did the Patriots let air out of the footballs on purpose, did Tom Brady know, and how much of the league’s case was its own word?
What the records say
The documented story holds up: 12 of 13 timeline steps are Confirmed by the records (score 98).
3 theories checked: 3 disputed. A theory is rated by its key claim.
Brady drops his appeal and serves four games
confirmedCredible: two independent tier-2 reports. See the step
Down the rabbit hole
The ground line is the documented timeline. Each tunnel is a theory that branches off it; every chamber is a step, coloured by how well the records support it. The deepest chamber is the theory’s key claim. Tap one to open it.
Main timeline
Oldest first- 18 Jan 2015confirmed
At halftime of the AFC title game, all eleven Patriots balls tested measure under the limit
A Colts linebacker intercepted a Brady pass, and Colts staff found the ball under the minimum. Officials tested eleven Patriots balls and four Colts balls with two gauges: every Patriots ball was below 12.5 psi on both, and each Colts ball was in range on at least one. The Patriots won 45–7.
T1Second Circuit opinion, 25 Apr 2016p. 5T1Wells Report, 6 May 2015pp. 7–8involved party: NFL (the league commissioned the investigation, run together with its own executive vice president)T2AP, 24 May 2016 - 19 Jan 2015confirmed
The league’s first letter to the Patriots gets the key number wrong
An NFL executive wrote that one Patriots ball was “inflated to 10.1 psi” and that each Colts ball inspected met the rules. The league’s own investigators later wrote that “none of the Patriots game balls measured 10.1 psi”, and that the Colts balls were in range on only one of the two gauges.
T1Wells Report, 6 May 2015pp. 100–101involved party: NFL (the league commissioned the investigation, run together with its own executive vice president)T2ESPN, 8 Sep 2015 - 23 Jan 2015confirmed
The NFL hires the lawyer Ted Wells to investigate, together with its own executive
The league retained Wells and the law firm Paul, Weiss, working “together with NFL Executive Vice President Jeff Pash”. The report says it “was prepared entirely by the Paul, Weiss investigative team”.
T1Second Circuit opinion, 25 Apr 2016p. 5T1Wells Report, 6 May 2015p. 1involved party: NFL (the league commissioned the investigation, run together with its own executive vice president) - 6 May 2015confirmed
The Wells Report says it is “more probable than not” that two staff let air out, and that Brady was “at least generally aware”
It names the locker-room attendant Jim McNally and the equipment assistant John Jastremski, points to texts in which McNally called himself “the deflator”, and to a stop of about 1 minute 40 seconds in a locked bathroom with the balls. It says the evidence against Brady is “less direct”.
T1Wells Report, 6 May 2015pp. 2, 4, 13, 17involved party: NFL (the league commissioned the investigation, run together with its own executive vice president) - 6 May 2015confirmed
The report’s scientists say the cold alone cannot explain the Patriots’ readings
Exponent, hired by the investigators, found the drop “cannot be explained completely by basic scientific principles, such as the Ideal Gas Law”. The report itself warns that “varying the applicable assumptions can have a material impact on the ultimate conclusions”.
T1Wells Report, 6 May 2015pp. 9–13involved party: NFL (the league commissioned the investigation, run together with its own executive vice president) - 11 May 2015confirmed
The NFL suspends Brady for four games and fines the Patriots $1 million
The club also lost its 2016 first-round and 2017 fourth-round draft picks. The letter to the team names its 2007 Spygate punishment as a factor. The Patriots did not appeal; Brady did.
T1NFL statement on penalties, 11 May 2015involved party: NFL (its own announcement of its own penalties)T1Second Circuit opinion, 25 Apr 2016pp. 7–8T2ESPN/ABC News poll, May 2015T2ESPN, 8 Sep 2015 - Jun 2015confirmed
Three American Enterprise Institute economists say it is “unlikely that the Patriots deflated the footballs”
Their paper says the report’s statistics rest on “an unorthodox statistical procedure” and that the result depends on which gauge the referee used before the game.
T3AEI paper, Jun 2015pp. 1, 4, 10 - 28 Jul 2015confirmed
Goodell upholds the suspension after learning Brady had his phone destroyed
On 6 March, the day of his interview with the investigators, Brady told his assistant to destroy the phone he had used since November 2014. Brady said it was his normal practice. Goodell, hearing the appeal himself, found Brady “participated in a scheme” and obstructed the inquiry.
T1Second Circuit opinion, 25 Apr 2016pp. 9–10 - 3 Sep 2015confirmed
A federal judge throws out the suspension
Judge Richard M. Berman ruled that Brady lacked notice and that the process was unfair. He ruled on whether the league followed its labour agreement, not on whether Brady was guilty. Brady played the 2015 season.
- Feb 2016confirmed
The league does not publish the pressure readings it took during the 2015 season
After the scandal, officials logged ball pressures at random games. Goodell said “It wasn’t a research study. They simply were spot checks.” A month later Troy Vincent said the checks were about procedure.
- 25 Apr 2016confirmed
An appeals court reinstates the suspension, 2–1, without ruling on the facts
The Second Circuit held the commissioner acted within his powers, and said courts they were “not authorized to review the arbitrator’s decision on the merits”. Chief Judge Katzmann dissented, calling the penalty “unprecedented” and the reasoning shifting.
T1Second Circuit opinion, 25 Apr 2016pp. 2, 12T1Chief Judge Katzmann’s dissent, 25 Apr 2016pp. 1–3 - 24 May 2016likely
21 engineering and physics professors back Brady’s request for a rehearing
Their filing said: “This is not tampering. It is science.” They said footballs routinely fall below the league’s minimum in the cold. Read here only as AP reported it.
- 15 Jul 2016confirmed
Brady drops his appeal and serves four games
The full appeals court refused a rehearing on 13 July. Brady wrote that he had “made the difficult decision to no longer proceed with the legal process.” Patriots owner Robert Kraft called the penalty “unprecedented, unjust and unreasonable”.
Branches
Go down oneA branch is only as strong as its weakest step so far. The count is how many sources back each step.
It was the cold
Did the footballs lose air because of the weather, not a needle?
Bill Belichick’s press conference, where he pointed to how the balls were prepared and to conditions on the day. Home experiments on YouTube followed within a week.
- 747,952 YouTube views, “MIT Professor Debunks Deflategate” as of 17 Oct 2026 T3YouTube: “MIT Professor Debunks Deflategate”
- 6,699 YouTube views, “Deflate Gate & Why Science Says the Patriots Did Not Tamper With Footballs” (1 Feb 2015) as of 17 Oct 2026 T3YouTube: a home experiment, 1 Feb 2015
The referee remembered using the gauge that makes the Patriots’ numbers look normal
The AEI paper says the report reached its result “in a direct contradiction” of the referee’s recollection.
T3AEI paper, Jun 2015p. 4The premise: confirmedTrue: the report records his “best recollection” as the Logo gauge and then finds the other gauge more probable. Its own scientists say the Logo case fits natural loss only under narrow timing and wet-ball conditions.
T1Wells Report, 6 May 2015p. 52 and n. 30; Appendix 1 p. xiiiinvolved party: NFL (the league commissioned the investigation, run together with its own executive vice president)The Colts’ balls sat warming in the locker room while the Patriots’ were tested
AEI argues the Colts balls, tested last, warmed back up, which makes the Patriots’ drop look bigger.
T3AEI paper, Jun 2015pp. 1, 7The premise: likelyThe report confirms the Patriots balls were tested first, for four to five minutes, and its scientists list time in the warm room among the biggest factors. How much the Colts balls warmed is not measured in any record.
T1Wells Report, 6 May 2015pp. 12, 69–70involved party: NFL (the league commissioned the investigation, run together with its own executive vice president)The league kept its 2015 test numbers secret
Mike Florio reports, from an unnamed source, that the readings tracked temperature and were deleted on the general counsel’s order.
The premise: confirmedTrue that the numbers were never released, and Goodell said “It wasn’t a research study.” That they were destroyed, and what they showed, rests on one unnamed source.
Even the league’s first numbers were wrong
The Patriots say the 19 January letter contained facts “later proved false”, ESPN reported.
The premise: confirmedTrue: the league’s own report says no ball measured the 10.1 psi in the letter. It calls this an “inadvertent error in communication”.
T1Wells Report, 6 May 2015p. 101involved party: NFL (the league commissioned the investigation, run together with its own executive vice president)
- confirmed
Footballs lose pressure when they go from a warm room to a cold field
Even the league’s consultants “confirmed that a reduction in air pressure is a natural result” of that move. The question is how much.
T1Wells Report, 6 May 2015p. 9involved party: NFL (the league commissioned the investigation, run together with its own executive vice president)T2Science News, 18 Jun 2015StartStrength so far:confirmed· 2 sources on this step - confirmed
Which gauge the referee used before the game was never written down, and it changes the answer
The referee’s “best recollection” was the gauge that reads higher; the report chose the other one. Its own scientists say that with the higher-reading gauge, the Patriots’ numbers fit natural loss, but only if testing began at once and most balls were wet.
T1Wells Report, 6 May 2015p. 52 and n. 30; Appendix 1 p. xiiiinvolved party: NFL (the league commissioned the investigation, run together with its own executive vice president)= HoldsStrength so far:confirmed· 1 source on this step - likely
Outside labs found drops of about a pound or more from cold and wet
A Boston College lab saw a ball fall from 13.5 to 10.5 psi when cooled from 72°F to 42°F. HeadSmart Labs measured an average drop of 1.07 psi after cooling, and about 0.75 psi more when the balls were wet.
▼ WeakerStrength so far:likely· 1 source on this step - disputed
Key claim: the halftime readings are explained by temperature and wetness, with no tampering
The only full study saying otherwise was commissioned for the league’s investigation. Outside scientists, among them 21 professors who filed in court, say the data are too thin to show tampering. No independent study of the full game-day data was found.
T1Wells Report, 6 May 2015pp. 9–13involved party: NFL (the league commissioned the investigation, run together with its own executive vice president)T2Science News, 18 Jun 2015T2AP, 24 May 2016▼ WeakerStrength so far:disputed· 3 sources on this step
Bullshit meter
- No step is Unverified or Disproven.
- Key claim contradicted by tier 1? Not by an independent record. The only full study saying the cold cannot explain the readings was done for the league’s own investigation (see the interest meter), and outside scientists dispute it, so it stays Disputed.
Fluff meter: possibly planted
- Can’t be traced to an original record. Absent: the halftime numbers are printed in the Wells Report.
- First appeared from new or anonymous accounts. Not measured.
- Coordinated identical wording. Not measured.
- Cited source doesn’t exist. Absent: the report, the AEI paper and the court filing exist.
- Later contradicted. Not measured.
● present · ○ absent · – not measured. Lists signals only. It never accuses anyone.
Personal interest meter
- The Wells Report and Exponent’s study, were commissioned for the NFL’s investigation, which the league ran “together with” its executive vice president Jeff Pash. T1Wells Report, 6 May 2015p. 1involved party: NFL (the league commissioned the investigation, run together with its own executive vice president)
- Paul, Weiss, had defended the NFL in the concussion litigation, ESPN reported. T2ESPN, 8 Sep 2015
“Has a documented interest” only, each one sourced. Never an implication of guilt.
Correlation meter
- Jeff Pash, ran the investigation “together with” Wells (main timeline step 3) and, per one unnamed source, ordered the 2015 readings deleted (cold branch). T1Wells Report, 6 May 2015p. 1involved party: NFL (the league commissioned the investigation, run together with its own executive vice president)
- Roger Goodell, set the penalties, heard the appeal and denied any Spygate link (makeup branch and Brady branch). T1Second Circuit opinion, 25 Apr 2016p. 8
- The 10.1 psi letter, is cited by the cold branch and recorded by the report itself (main timeline step 2). T1Wells Report, 6 May 2015p. 101involved party: NFL (the league commissioned the investigation, run together with its own executive vice president)
Links to other cases appear once those cases exist.
Who worked on this
This case was assembled by the site from public records. Contributions are not open yet. Nothing here is invented, so the counts are zero.
This is the first published version of the case.
Sources
- T1involved party: NFL (the league commissioned the investigation, run together with its own executive vice president) Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP (Theodore V. Wells Jr., Brad S. Karp, Lorin L. Reisner), “Investigative Report Concerning Footballs Used During the AFC Championship Game on January 18, 2015”, 6 May 2015, with Exponent’s report as Appendix 1. Page numbers are the report’s own printed numbers (Exponent’s pages are roman numerals).. s3.amazonaws.com
- T1National Football League Management Council v. National Football League Players Association, Nos. 15-2801 (L), 15-2805 (CON), U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, opinion of Judge Barrington D. Parker, decided 25 Apr 2016 (820 F.3d 527). Page numbers are the slip opinion’s printed numbers.. www.govinfo.gov
- T1Dissenting opinion of Chief Judge Robert A. Katzmann in National Football League Management Council v. National Football League Players Association, Nos. 15-2801, 15-2805 (2d Cir., 25 Apr 2016). www.govinfo.gov
- T1involved party: NFL (its own announcement of its own penalties) “NFL releases statement on Patriots’ violations”, NFL.com, 11 May 2015, with excerpts of Troy Vincent’s letters to the Patriots and to Tom Brady. www.nfl.com
- T3Kevin A. Hassett, Joseph W. Sullivan and Stan A. Veuger, “On the Wells report”, AEI Economic Perspectives, American Enterprise Institute, June 2015 (a think-tank paper, not peer reviewed). Read in the copy CBS Boston posted.. assets1.cbsnewsstatic.com
- T2Rachel Ehrenberg, “Deflategate favored foul play over science”, Science News (Culture Beaker blog), 18 Jun 2015. www.sciencenews.org
- T2Don Van Natta Jr. and Seth Wickersham, “Spygate to Deflategate: Inside what split the NFL and Patriots apart”, ESPN The Magazine / Outside the Lines, 8 Sep 2015. www.espn.com
- T2“ESPN/ABC News poll shows support for NFL over Patriots, Brady”, ABC7 San Francisco (ESPN), May 2015. Langer Research Associates, random national sample of 504 adults, 12 May 2015, margin of error 5 points.. abc7news.com
- T2Ben Volin, “Roger Goodell says PSI data collected as a deterrent”, The Boston Globe, 2 Feb 2016. www.bostonglobe.com
- T2“Troy Vincent says this year’s football spot checks weren’t about PSI”, CBS Sports, 18 Mar 2016. www.cbssports.com
- T2“Engineering and physics professors weigh in on Brady appeal”, The Associated Press, 24 May 2016 (read on KSL.com). www.ksl.com
- T2“Brady to drop appeal, serve 4-game ‘Deflategate’ suspension”, The Associated Press, 15 Jul 2016 (read on ABC13 Houston). abc13.com
- T2“Tom Brady ends Deflategate legal process, will not appeal”, Sports Illustrated (SI Wire), 15 Jul 2016. www.si.com
- T3Mike Florio, “From Playmakers: NFL general counsel Jeff Pash ordered expungement of 2015 air-pressure measurements”, ProFootballTalk (NBC Sports), 8 Feb 2022, an excerpt-based post from his book, resting on unnamed sources. profootballtalk.nbcsports.com
- T3“MIT Professor Debunks Deflategate” (Prof. John Leonard’s guest lecture), uploaded by Nick Kistner, YouTube, 2 Dec 2015. www.youtube.com
- T3“Deflate Gate & Why Science Says the Patriots Did Not Tamper With Footballs”, Michael The Maven, YouTube, 1 Feb 2015. www.youtube.com
- T3“Tom Brady’s Infamous Football Cheating Scandal”, BuzzFeed Unsolved Network, YouTube, 28 Sep 2018. www.youtube.com
- T3“Barstool Sports vs. Rodger Goodell and Deflategate || Barstool Documentary Series”, Barstool Sports, YouTube, 7 Apr 2020. www.youtube.com
- T3“Report: Deflategate Punishment Was ‘Makeup Call’ For Spygate”, NESN, YouTube, 8 Sep 2015. www.youtube.com