What is ball lightning?
A 2012 recording shows ball lightning is a real light, and its spectrum points to soil vaporised by a strike. Whether all of it works that way is disputed, and an Air Force report says a weapons project made something similar.
- ✓ Confirmed23 Jul 2012A research team in China films a ball of light at the foot of a lightning strike
- ✓ Confirmed17 Jan 2014The first spectrum of ball lightning shows soil elements
- DisputedTheoryBall lightning is soil vaporised by lightning
- ✕ DisprovenTheoryBall lightning is a hallucination, not a real object
- LikelyTheoryThe US military ran a secret project to make ball-lightning-like plasmas as weapons
- UnverifiedTheory“ball lightning” is a cover label for real UFOs
For centuries people have reported glowing balls that drift through storms, rooms and even aircraft. In 2012 Chinese researchers filmed one by chance and recorded its light spectrum for the first time.
The question What are the glowing balls people report during thunderstorms: burning soil, a trick of the brain, a secret military plasma weapon, or something else?
What the records say
The documented story holds up: 8 of 8 timeline steps are Confirmed by the records (score 100).
4 theories checked: 1 disproven, 1 unverified, 1 disputed, 1 likely. A theory is rated by its key claim.
The first spectrum of ball lightning shows soil elements
confirmedCredible: it rests on a primary (tier-1) record. See the step
Down the rabbit hole
The ground line is the documented timeline. Each tunnel is a theory that branches off it; every chamber is a step, coloured by how well the records support it. The deepest chamber is the theory’s key claim. Tap one to open it.
Main timeline
Oldest first- 19 Mar 1963confirmed
A scientist reports a glowing ball floating down the aisle of an airliner
R. C. Jennison wrote in Nature that after his all-metal airliner was enveloped in an electrical discharge, “a glowing sphere a little more than 20 cm in diameter emerged from the pilot’s cabin and passed down the aisle”.
T1Jennison, Nature, 1969opening paragraph - Apr 1963 (published Jan 1966)confirmed
A NASA survey finds that about one in ten staff who answered had seen ball lightning
A questionnaire went to about 4,400 NASA Lewis employees; 1,764 replied and 112 events were described in detail. The author concluded ball lightning “is not a particularly rare phenomenon.”
T1Rayle, NASA Technical Note D-3188, Jan 1966Summary, pp. 1–5 - Feb 2000confirmed
Two researchers propose in Nature that ball lightning is burning soil
John Abrahamson and James Dinniss argued in Nature that lightning striking soil throws out a network of silicon nanoparticles that glow as they slowly oxidise. Their lab discharges on soil produced such particles.
T1Abrahamson & Dinniss, Nature, 2000abstract - Dec 2000confirmed
A secret UK defence study says ball lightning explains some UFO reports
The Ministry of Defence study concluded: “Ball lightning, which is a plasma form, and which has been replicated in the laboratory, accounts for a number of UAP sightings.” It was later released under freedom of information.
T1UK MoD “Condign” report, Dec 2000Vol. 1, p. 30involved party: UK Ministry of Defence - Feb 2003confirmed
A US Air Force study says a still-classified weapons project made ball-lightning-like plasmas
The Air Force Research Laboratory’s ball lightning study describes “a still-classified 40+ year-old United States Air Force (USAF) weapons project involving the creation and projection of BL-like pulsed-train plasmoids”. That section is blacked out in the released copy.
T1US Air Force Research Laboratory, “Ball Lightning Study”, 2003p. 22; pp. 33–38 redactedinvolved party: US Air Force - Jun 2010confirmed
Two physicists propose that many sightings are images made inside the brain
Peer and Kendl argued that the magnetic pulses of nearby lightning can stimulate the brain’s visual centres, so a large class of ball lightning reports may be phosphenes. A later erratum cut their field estimate by more than ten times.
T1Peer & Kendl, Physics Letters A, 2010 (with erratum)abstract; erratum - 23 Jul 2012confirmed
A research team in China films a ball of light at the foot of a lightning strike
A team from Northwest Normal University in Lanzhou, recording lightning on the Qinghai Plateau, caught a ball about 900 m away. It lasted 1.64 seconds, moved sideways at about 8.6 m/s and changed from purple-white to orange, white and red.
- 17 Jan 2014confirmed
The first spectrum of ball lightning shows soil elements
The ball’s light carried lines of silicon, iron and calcium, “the main components of soil”, for its whole life. The authors caution it “is only one event that may not be representative of all ball lightning.”
Branches
Go down oneA branch is only as strong as its weakest step so far. The count is how many sources back each step.
Burning soil
Is ball lightning made of soil that a lightning strike has vaporised?
Abrahamson and Dinniss, “Ball lightning caused by oxidation of nanoparticle networks from normal lightning strikes on soil”, Nature.
- 126 Papers citing the 2000 soil proposal (Crossref) as of 17 Oct 2026 NO TIEROur Crossref query, 17 Oct 2026
- 111 Papers citing the 2014 spectrum paper (Crossref) as of 17 Oct 2026 NO TIEROur Crossref query, 17 Oct 2026
The one ball ever measured glowed with soil elements
The 2014 authors say “there are reasons to believe” their ball came from lightning striking soil.
The premise: confirmedTrue for that ball: silicon, iron and calcium lines lasted its whole life.
The particles burn at the right speed
Abrahamson and Dinniss say their particles oxidise “at a rate appropriate for explaining the lifetime of ball lightning.”
T1Abrahamson & Dinniss, Nature, 2000abstractThe premise: confirmedThat is their peer-reviewed lab result. The full paper was not read.
T1Abrahamson & Dinniss, Nature, 2000abstract
- confirmed
2000: Abrahamson and Dinniss propose burning silicon from soil
Carried over from the main timeline (step 3).
T1Abrahamson & Dinniss, Nature, 2000abstractStartStrength so far:confirmed· 1 source on this step - confirmed
2007: arcs in pure silicon make glowing balls in the lab
The 2014 paper describes a 2007 experiment in which electric arcs in silicon made luminous balls 1–4 cm across that lasted 2–5 seconds, with several properties of natural ball lightning.
= HoldsStrength so far:confirmed· 1 source on this step - confirmed
2014: the filmed ball’s light shows silicon, iron and calcium
Carried over from the main timeline (step 8). A lightning expert quoted by the American Physical Society said: “This one certainly seems to be made of dirt.”
= HoldsStrength so far:confirmed· 2 sources on this step - disputed
Key claim: ball lightning is soil vaporised by lightning
It fits the one ball ever measured. But balls are reported where there is no soil, such as inside a metal airliner in flight, and the 2014 authors say there may be more than one type and more than one mechanism.
T1Cen, Yuan & Xue, Physical Review Letters, 2014p. 4T1Jennison, Nature, 1969opening paragraph▼ WeakerStrength so far:disputed· 2 sources on this step
Bullshit meter
- No step is Unverified or Disproven.
- Key claim contradicted by tier 1? Partly. The only measured ball fits it, but an eyewitness report in Nature describes one inside an airliner, far from soil, so the key step is Disputed.
Fluff meter: possibly planted
- Can’t be traced to an original record. Absent: traced to a 2000 paper in Nature.
- First appeared from new or anonymous accounts. Absent: named researchers.
- Coordinated identical wording. Not measured.
- Cited source doesn’t exist. Absent: the papers were opened.
- Later contradicted. Not measured.
● present · ○ absent · – not measured. Lists signals only. It never accuses anyone.
Personal interest meter
- None documented. With no sources attached there is no one to check.
“Has a documented interest” only, each one sourced. Never an implication of guilt.
Correlation meter
- Kapitsa’s microwave idea, that an outside radio field could feed the ball is discussed in the 1966 NASA note, the 2003 Air Force study and the 2014 paper. T1Rayle, NASA Technical Note D-3188, Jan 1966p. 2
- The UK “Condign” study, is used by both the brain branch (fields acting on the brain) and the UFO branch (plasma explaining sightings). T1UK MoD “Condign” report, Dec 2000Executive Summaryinvolved party: UK Ministry of Defence
Links to other cases appear once those cases exist.
Who worked on this
This case was assembled by the site from public records. Contributions are not open yet. Nothing here is invented, so the counts are zero.
This is the first published version of the case.
Sources
- T1R. C. Jennison, “Ball Lightning”, Nature 224, 895 (Nov 1969). The opening paragraph (shown as the abstract) was read; the rest is paywalled.. www.nature.com
- T1Warren D. Rayle (NASA Lewis Research Center), “Ball Lightning Characteristics”, NASA Technical Note TN D-3188, January 1966. ntrs.nasa.gov · copy read: ntrs.nasa.gov
- T1John Abrahamson and James Dinniss, “Ball lightning caused by oxidation of nanoparticle networks from normal lightning strikes on soil”, Nature 403, 519 (Feb 2000). Abstract read; full paper paywalled.. www.nature.com
- T1involved party: UK Ministry of Defence Defence Intelligence Analysis Staff, “Unidentified Aerial Phenomena in the UK Air Defence Region”, Scientific & Technical Memorandum No. 55/2/00 (the “Condign” report), Executive Summary and Volumes 1–2, December 2000; later released by the Ministry of Defence under the Freedom of Information Act. www.theblackvault.com · copy read: documents2.theblackvault.com
- T1involved party: US Air Force Eric W. Davis (Warp Drive Metrics, contractor), “Ball Lightning Study”, report AFRL-PR-ED-TR-2002-0039, Air Force Research Laboratory, Edwards Air Force Base; report date 24 Feb 2003, issued May 2003 (released copy with redactions). documents2.theblackvault.com
- T1J. Peer and A. Kendl (University of Innsbruck), “Transcranial stimulability of phosphenes by long lightning electromagnetic pulses”, Physics Letters A 374 (29), 2932–2935 (June 2010), and “Erratum and addendum”, Physics Letters A 374 (47), 4797–4799 (2010). Read as arXiv:1005.1153v3, which contains both.. doi.org · copy read: arxiv.org
- T1Jianyong Cen, Ping Yuan and Simin Xue (Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou), “Observation of the Optical and Spectral Characteristics of Ball Lightning”, Physical Review Letters 112, 035001 (published 17 Jan 2014). doi.org · copy read: fisherp.mit.edu
- T2Philip Ball, “First Spectrum of Ball Lightning”, Physics 7, 5, American Physical Society, 17 Jan 2014. physics.aps.org
- T3“Ball Lightning, UFOs, and Redacted Studies”, YouTube channel Rather B. Squidding, uploaded 30 Aug 2021 (description and auto-captions read). www.youtube.com
- T3“Ball Lightning or Real UFO Footage”, YouTube channel UFOLibrary, uploaded 20 Sep 2009; a re-upload of a local TV news report (description and auto-captions read). www.youtube.com
- T4“Ball Lightning, term to explain away the UFO/UAP Phenomenon?”, YouTube channel Enigma Seeker, uploaded 18 Jun 2016 (title, description and view count only). www.youtube.com
- T4“Ball Lightning: Real or Hallucination? We Still Don’t Know”, YouTube channel DYJ Science, uploaded 4 Jul 2026 (title and view count only). www.youtube.com
- NO TIEROur note: citation counts (“is-referenced-by-count”) the Crossref API returned for the papers’ DOIs on 17 Oct 2026. A count of citing papers, not of supporters.